ANZCO Foods Market Update - October 2026

The first month of Donald Trump's grand plan to introduce cheaper beef into the US market fell, not surprisingly, flat, with only about 30,000 mt of beef entering the market in September under this scheme versus the 100,000 mt target that Trump had proposed. It will be interesting to see how Brazilian exporters react this month given they will have had slightly more time to prepare themselves for the unexpected opportunity that has been presented to them.

Regardless of this unwelcome access, as at the end of August the amount of imported product that has entered the US market in 2026 is up by about 250,000 mt versus the same period last year. Not surprisingly, a large percentage of that increase has originated from South America, with the Argentinian industry leading the charge in terms of year-on-year growth, thanks again to the Administration's earlier decision to open access for that specific country. The other big mover this year has been Australia, with volumes up 17%, reflecting the significant increase in production we've seen across the ditch. New Zealand's volume is up a more modest 9%.

Overall, this extra volume has been a major reason why prices for our beef in the US have failed to hit the sort of levels that many in the industry had been projecting and hoping for at the beginning of the year, which was based off prevailing US market fundamentals and domestic supply challenges. Imports now represent 20% of all beef consumed within the US market – twice the historical average.

In China, the buoyant prices for beef we’ve enjoyed during recent weeks, caused by Australia and Brazil having hit their annual quota limits, have now dissipated as Chinese importers start to target January 2027 deliveries, which is when volumes from those two countries go back to a clean slate. Interestingly, Australian chilled beef imports into China continue to track relatively well, with more than 2,000 mt entering the market last month despite the additional 55% tariff they are being forced to pay. By comparison, in September New Zealand shipped less than 400 mt of chilled beef into China, despite our access being duty free. This reflects the market for premium beef in China, which is still predominately driven by demand for grain-fed product. It also highlights the short-term challenge but longer-term opportunity we have as an industry to continue to educate Chinese consumers about the merits of our grass-fed beef through tools such as the Taste Pure Nature country of origin brand that processors continue to invest in.

Lamb markets in general continue to be more challenging than beef. This is being reflected in export values, with the industry average softening by around 50c/ kg between August and September, while beef prices remained steady. Right now, from a production point of view, we also face the short-term challenge of dealing with the end of last season’s lamb, with record average weights of more than 23 kg, up 500 g from the same time in 2025. Having to deal with heavier carcasses makes it more challenging for us to find the most valuable markets for your product, which again will simply be reflected in export values until new season lamb finally becomes available.

In Europe, it's a case of third time unlucky in relation to the deforestation regulations they have tried and failed to execute during the past two years. These new rules now look set to come into force in January 2027, meaning that shipments from next month will be impacted. These regulations only apply to beef, and the industry has done a good job investing in technology to give us a very accurate readout of the parcels of farmland around New Zealand that have experienced deforestation since 2020, as specifically defined by European regulations. From an ANZCO Foods perspective, we are looking at a very small number of properties that have been identified. We have systems in place at our plants to ensure we can identify those impacted animals and will ensure the product is sold to markets outside of the European Union. Hence there are no implications for you as a supplier, and we obviously continue to value your support and your supply of cattle.

A big month ahead as November brings potential change here in New Zealand and in the US from a political standpoint, which may present further uncertainty and challenges for the wider industry and for exporters such as ANZCO Foods. The continued volatility in the Middle East also presents some short-term risk for trade flows, and the most recent escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is an unwelcome development given the supply chain challenges we’re already facing for our product being shipped into Saudi. Hopefully we will have greater clarity on all the above by the time of my next report.