ANZCO Foods Market Update - September 2026

Once again, it has been the US making all the headlines when it comes to beef and lamb markets this past month.

In my last report I signalled hope that we were returning to more normal trading patterns for manufacturing beef, only to be trumped (excuse the pun!) by the Administration’s proclamation that it would remove the current 26% out-of-quota tariff on imports – essentially out of Brazil – for the next three months, with the stated aim of reducing prices for US consumers.

Of course, that aim is an absolute folly, and all it has done is provide a welcome boost to US processors and grinders – notably the ‘big four’ that control more than 75% of total US production. These companies have been the target of Trump’s ire when it comes to placing blame for why US consumers have been paying such high prices for beef at their local supermarkets, hence it is all rather ironic and shows a total lack of understanding of current market dynamics and the various levers that can be pulled within the wider industry.

You may well have seen in other reporting that US farmers have rallied against the decision. In response, the Administration has been running around implementing additional measures that are supposedly targeted at supporting beef farmers, but which again seem to miss the mark and are destined to fail.

In summary, I think a fair assessment of the current situation is that it is a complete mess! The major impact on us is that it has simply and unnecessarily prolonged the recent period of volatility and uncertainty in US beef markets, which has kept prices off the highs we were seeing earlier in the year. The hope of a recovery in those prices – as expressed in my last report – has now faded away, and we have seen further softening since the announcement that we can only hope will be short-lived. Regardless, my revised best-case scenario for the rest of the year now seems to focus on holding on to what we have rather than driving for greater value.

Despite all this noise, the fundamentals in the US industry remain unchanged. The latest forecast from the USDA expects total beef production in the US to be down around 5% for the 2026 calendar year, which is a material decrease in volume given the constant increase in carcass weights. The current forecast suggests that 2027 will be flat with 2026 levels, but I see no justification for that position, and the majority view is that we will see another significant decrease in domestic production in the year ahead.

On the lamb side, this past month has seen the US investigation into lamb imports commence. This has required a fair bit of work on the part of New Zealand lamb exporters to provide detail around our respective businesses. While there will be a concerted effort on the part of the industry and New Zealand Government to defend our position, it is hard not to think we are fighting a losing battle given the political drivers behind the initiative on the US side. A loss will make life more difficult for our partners, Greenstone Meats (formerly The Lamb Company), as we look ahead to 2027, but it’s these situations that make us appreciate how lucky we are to have Greenstone Meats working for us in-market. Their significant network across retail and foodservice channels puts us in the best possible position to endure any adverse effects of the current process.

The UK and Europe have returned to work after the summer vacations, and we have seen a useful pick-up in buyer activity as customers look ahead to the change in seasons. Retail remains the key vehicle for sales value in lamb, with foodservice and food manufacturing still floundering. Beef sales into foodservice are trending in the right direction, albeit our quota access into Europe is now fully committed until 2027. In the UK, we still have room to move on quota access as we continue to drive a strategy around our premium brands of Ocean Beef and Stony River Black Angus.

I was in Japan last week, where it was clear that very little has changed. A weak yen, poor consumer confidence and a tightening in the price gap between imported and domestic beef mean that sales remain slow but steady. Lamb sales growth is largely being driven by increasing tourist numbers, as well as the emergence of cuisine trends that are traditional lamb users, notably Chinese.

As temperatures start to fall, beef consumption in China is slowly increasing. Demand for lamb is also picking up, with lamb traditionally a popular winter dish for Chinese consumers. We continue to see challenges for Australian beef following the imposition of the 55% safeguard duty, but for us the bigger issue from this policy is found outside China, where we are currently facing increased competition from Australian exporters that are looking to divert product in the short term, notably prime cuts, into other markets until their access to China reopens.

So, there is plenty going on, and while the general sentiment is challenging and pricing is coming under pressure in specific markets and channels, returns overall remain at very good levels.