Domestic market updates

October 2025

Key market indicators

Early-season lamb is flowing, beef is steady, export programs remain attractive, and tariff/currency crosswinds could reshape where product lands next.

Beef

Supply	Price	Market impact
Balance	Firm	Domestic beef pricing remains firm as export returns stabilise. Limited upside expected in the short term with steady procurement and balanced supply.

Performance

Export	Domestic
Demand remains steady, led by strong US grinding beef orders and limited Australian competition. Asian chilled programs are holding value, but currency strength is trimming returns.	Local pricing is firm but steady, with plants well covered and few supply surges expected. Secondary cuts remain good value options as premium demand stays cautious.

Lamb

Supply	Price	Market impact
Improving	First to rising	Lamb markets are lifting as seasonal throughput improves and demand strengthens. Heavy and medium lamb remain well supported by export programs, firming domestic values.

Performance

Export	Domestic
Demand has improved, particularly for frozen UK/EU programs, with better returns offsetting a stronger NZD. Chilled demand is cautious, and processors are balancing early throughput with quality.	Early-season lamb availability has lifted, easing pressure on domestic supply. Medium/heavy carcasses are in demand and prices are firm to rising, while lighter lamb remains softer.

Global trends & domestic impacts

Export tariffs

A 15% US tariff on NZ goods is flagged alongside possible China beef tariffs/safeguards, with combined sector exposure potentially large.
A firmer NZD also trims export returns.

Export market

US beef demand stays strong (historically low US herd), and UK/EU frozen lamb programs remain attractive as chilled lamb demand is cautious.

Domestic effect

Pricing is stable-to-soft on early lamb and steady on beef; no new access shocks flagged this month.
If export margins are squeezed by tariffs/currency, more export-grade items could be offered domestically, but specs may differ from usual domestic programs.

What this means for domestic B2B

Secure chilled medium/heavy lamb specs early; keep size/spec flexibility for early-season supply (more lighter carcasses now).
Keep beef supply steady: pricing is largely flat with minor movements across cuts; consider forward cover on premium primals; be opportunistic on co-products if export competition eases.
Menu agility: Keep substitution options (e.g., lamb shoulder ↔ beef secondary primals) as UK/EU frozen lamb and US beef pull keep pressure on certain cuts.
Watch policy and FX: If US/China tariff settings harden and NZD stays firm, be ready for domestic offers of export-grade items.
Timing matters: Weather-driven pasture gains could rebalance lamb kill into November; align promos with expected weekly flows.

Key takeaways

Beef supply remains stable: Stable procurement, selective cut moves only.
Early-season lamb available now: Modest softness on lighter lamb; medium/heavy tighter.
Export programs still competitive: US beef and UK/EU frozen lamb keep pressure on premium specs.
Tariff and FX risk rising: Could redirect some volume domestically, but specs may change

September 2025

Key market indicators

The domestic beef and lamb market continues to be influenced by global trade pressures, tight livestock supply, and shifting export dynamics.

Beef

Supply	Price	Market impact
Tight	First to rising	Strong U.S. demand keeps more NZ beef offshore; domestic supply remains constrained, with less volume and higher wholesale prices. Expect firmness through Q4.

Performance

Export	Domestic
U.S tariffs on NZ beef (15% vs Australia's 10%) make exports less competitive, but demand remains strong.	While tariff pressure may eventually soften exports, short-term supply will stay tight, keeping prices firm.

Lamb

Supply	Price	Market impact
Tight	Firm	Offshore buyers (UK/EU) competing strongly, supporting export prices. Domestic buyers face higher costs and reduced flexibility, especially for prime cuts.