ANZCO Foods Market Update - December 2025

As we come to the end of another year, it’s tradition on my part to review the predictions I made at the same time in 2024 to determine if I managed a better strike rate than in previous attempts to predict the ebb and flow of global beef and lamb markets.

To be honest, while I tabled five or six predictions for 2025, I did largely set myself up for success. My first prediction was simply my third attempt at calling the inevitable change in the US beef industry from liquidation to herd rebuild. The remaining predictions centred on the rest of the world continuing to struggle and move forward on the back of challenging economic conditions and poor consumer confidence. Despite this, I expected those markets to remain willing to pay higher prices, driven by competition from North America and recognition of the global supply position. As the year unfolded, I anticipated this tightening would become increasingly evident across both beef and lamb.

In short, I'm giving myself an A+ for 2025!

I guess that means that I am obliged to also put out my list of predictions for 2026 and what that might mean for ANZCO Foods as well as for you behind the farm gate.

When it comes to beef and North America I can only predict more of the same as cattle numbers continue to tighten, US processors continue to lose money on the back of extremely high prices for livestock, and consumption remains robust. The only word of caution relates to the third of those variables, how the US economy plays out, what that means for US consumers and their appetite for our products. We’re already seeing record high prices for beef (and lamb) in the US retail channel. While it has been incredible to see how robust consumption has been despite those prices, there must be a point even for beef where consumers say ‘thanks but no thanks’. Next year is therefore shaping up to provide a good test for where that point might land or if it exists at all. In the meantime, the US and Canada will remain exceptional markets for our product, and the sales team at ANZCO Foods will be doing everything possible to work with our in-market partners to maximise that opportunity and the value that can be returned to New Zealand.

When it comes to lamb across all our markets, my prediction is linked to my view that we have already reached that inevitable tipping point on price and consumers’ willingness to pay. This year has been a great example of how we have been able to walk the tightrope with our customers. The challenge for 2026 will be to continue to work closely with our in-market partners to maximise value while ensuring that we recognise the individual market dynamics so we can manage the inevitable downside on value as it starts to gradually play out. This will be a far superior outcome than we’ve experienced in the past, when prices for lamb have crashed. That's where our global sale teams located in the UK, Europe, Japan and China become so valuable to our business, helping us to have the best information possible to make the right decisions on a day-to-day basis back here in New Zealand.

From a supply perspective, again my prediction is straight forward based on what we have seen around the world in the second half of 2025, with the expectation that our exporting competitors in Australia and Brazil, as well as domestic industries in the UK and US, will continue to see less livestock availability during the course of 2026. That will assist in terms of some of the nervousness I've expressed above around price points and consumption, but conversely also potentially accelerates our inevitable predicament, as demand far exceeds supply that leads to prices being pushed too fast and too far. At the end of the day, it's a great problem to have from a New Zealand industry perspective and gives us confidence that we’ll always have a home for our product. Our job will be to move volume between regions as individual markets and customers start to falter.

My final prediction is more of a Christmas wish, but it would be nice to think that unnecessary government intervention and meddling in our global markets will reduce in the year ahead. Obviously, the big issue during the past year has been the Trump administration's position on tariffs, and it has been a welcome revision of that position on beef that adds to my confidence around where that market can go in 2026. We are, however, still facing a 15% tariff and a 5% disadvantage to our friends in Australia on lamb. While there is constant domestic lobbying for even further restrictions around imported lamb into the US, I remain optimistic that common sense prevails and we will see the current tax on our lamb be removed in due course, either through the US legal system or for expedient political reasons that suit President Trump.

We’ve also had to face the prospect of completely unnecessary regulation out of the European Union around deforestation in 2025. This is an issue that has been percolating for the past two years or more and it was a relief to see that common sense prevailed just this month, with the regulation that was to come into force in January pushed out for yet another 12 months. My hope is that this second delay is a sign that European officials and politicians will ultimately let this flawed idea go and we can put the great work that has been done by the New Zealand industry to prepare for the regulation on ice, consigning this topic to a distant memory in due course.

Yet another issue that has been out there during 2025 has been the investigation by the Chinese government into the impact of imported beef on their domestic industry and the prospect of safeguard tariffs that would be imposed on individual exporting nations if imported volumes exceeded a certain level. Again, we received an early Christmas present in November with the decision by the Chinese authorities to delay the planned outcome to that investigation until early in 2026. It would be great to think that, when we get to that revised deadline, we will also see this potential barrier to trade be taken off the table once and for all, because it makes little sense for a nation that desperately needs to ensure continuous security of protein supply, particularly in a global environment where that supply is just getting harder to find.

This year has been a positive one for ANZCO Foods and the industry as a whole. Livestock prices have been exceptionally high and the prices we have been able to achieve for your product in global markets has followed the same trend, thus enabling us to keep our heads above water as a processor. It doesn't feel like it is that common to have both sides of the industry ending the year in a positive frame of mind, and I certainly hope we get the chance to carry that mindset well into 2026 on the back of consumption that continues to buck historic norms and global supply that continues to get tighter.

All the best for your Christmas. My thanks as always for your ongoing support for our business as we endeavour to bring nutrition and good health from New Zealand's finest beef and lamb to our customers and consumers around the world.