ANZCO Foods Market Update - April 2026

Despite ongoing volatility driven by uncertainty in the Middle East, sales over the last month have performed well and markets in general remain on track.

As reported last month, the impact of the Iranian conflict on our Middle East sales and wider business has been largely marginal. Supply chains continue to operate efficiently, enabling us to keep product flowing to customers globally. Obviously, as you will know better than most, the cost of doing business is increasing, particularly as diesel prices continue to rise, but we are managing this as best we can and remain focused on efficiency to minimise the impact of those additional costs.

In the US, beef prices have softened slightly from last month’s highs. This is partly driven by growing uncertainty around the impact of the Iranian conflict on the US economy and cost of living, with gas prices a key bellwether for consumer confidence. There is also an expectation among customers that, with stronger livestock flows in New Zealand and favourable exchange rates, we will be more accommodating on price. That position is justifiable to a point, but not one we are encouraging. With US domestic prices continuing to trend higher and the spread between domestic and imported beef still significant, we see no reason why we should not hold pricing and look forward to firmer returns in the near term.

It is worth noting that record volumes of Australian beef have entered the market over the past month, and Brazilian volumes have also increased despite a 26% tariff disadvantage. The presence of more imported product in US coldstores is clearly weighing on short-term market sentiment.

We have had a strong month of sales in China, although prices have softened slightly in recent weeks. There remains significant concern among major buyers around supply security in the second half of the year as safeguard limits begin to constrain Brazilian and Australian imports. This bodes well for us as the year progresses. Recent import statistics support this, showing Australian volumes into China had already reached 50% of their annual quota by the end of March, suggesting they will reach their limit by late June or early July.

The outlook is particularly encouraging for our premium chilled beef business. While we had scaled this back over the past two years due to the slowing Chinese economy and weaker customer returns, we are now gradually re-entering that space. Our partners are recognising the opportunity created by the expected absence of Australian chilled premium beef, which should benefit both us and the wider industry. Increasing product presence on retail shelves also improves our ability to leverage the Taste Pure Nature brand, which has been difficult when consumers simply have not been able to find our product.

Feedback from UK retailers over the Easter period was generally positive. However, it was noticeable that more Australian lamb legs were present on shelves than we have seen historically, reflecting the higher price expectations from New Zealand exporters relative to Australian supply. New Zealand has traditionally dominated this segment, and it remains a highly valuable market that we need to protect. Understanding the competitive threat from Australian product will be important moving forward.

European retail sales over Easter were also relatively solid, but foodservice performance was more subdued. Given that a larger proportion of lamb is consumed through foodservice in Europe compared to the UK, this is a concern. Many customers are now looking to reduce forward demand as they work through surplus inventory from the holiday period. Cost-of-living pressures, exacerbated by the Iranian conflict, are clearly having an impact, and it will be important to monitor how demand develops as spring progresses and dining activity typically lifts.

Spring also brings an expected uplift in demand in Japan. We have seen reasonable engagement on lamb, although beef remains challenging due to high domestic prices and the impact of a weak currency on imported product. That said, we continue to progress on the strength of our customer relationships and remain cautiously confident about the direction of travel as we move into summer.